Multi-feature integrated machine learning prediction model for early nephropathy in elderly living with type 2...

To develop and validate a multi-feature machine learning (ML) model for early diabetic nephropathy (DN) prediction in elderly living with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), incorporating clinical indicators, symptoms of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), and ultrasonic imaging features.

The valid data (including clinical indicators, TCM symptoms, and ultrasonic imaging features) of 786 patients was retained, and the data were divided into training and validation set. Three models were constructed to examine the model's performance. The optimal indicators were selected for seven ML. Performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The subgroup analysis was conducted based on age.

The multi-feature model, combining clinical data, TCM symptoms, and ultrasound imaging, demonstrated the best performance. Among the ML algorithms, RF exhibited superior performance with an AUC of 0.894, sensitivity of 0.667, specificity of 0.877, precision of 0.769, recall of 0.667, and F1 score of 0.714 in the validation set. Subgroup analysis revealed that the AUC values exceed 0.7 in each group.

This study is the first to incorporate TCM symptoms and ultrasound imaging features into a predictive model for early DN in elderly living with T2DM. The models demonstrated strong predictive performance across different age groups. These findings underscore the potential of early screening, prevention, and intervention in improving outcomes for elderly living with T2DM, offering a novel approach to managing diabetic nephropathy.