Migration-adjusted prostate cancer incidence in China: a population-based epidemiological analysis

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• China's internal migration presents significant challenges to cancer surveillance systems.
• Traditional methods relying on household-registered populations (HRP) can lead to biased incidence estimates.
• Excluding the substantial migrant population can misinform public health planning and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate prostate cancer incidence among the resident population (RP) in China.
• To account for the influence of inter-provincial migration on cancer surveillance data.
• To explore spatial patterns and clustering of prostate cancer incidence.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Bayesian integrated nested Laplace approximation with stochastic partial differential equation (INLA-SPDE) model.
• Incorporated inter-provincial migrant weights derived from the 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey.
• Analyzed spatial clustering of prostate cancer incidence across different regions.

Main Results:

• Identified a significant interprovincial migrant population of over 73 million individuals.
• Demonstrated substantial differences in prostate cancer incidence estimates between RP and HRP, particularly in provinces like Shanghai and Beijing.
• Revealed spatial clustering of higher incidence in eastern coastal areas and lower incidence in central-western and northeastern regions.

Conclusions:

• Internal migration significantly impacts prostate cancer incidence surveillance in China.
• Migrant-adjusted estimates offer a more accurate representation of disease burden.
• Findings provide methodological guidance for improving cancer registration systems in high-mobility regions and support equitable healthcare resource allocation.