Demographics and donor motivation drive declining blood donations: A 15-year study in Germany reflecting trends in...

Ageing populations in high-income countries reduce the proportion of potential blood donors while increasing transfusion demand. Sustaining an adequate blood supply requires higher donor motivation among younger age groups. We analysed long-term trends in whole blood donations (WBDs) in one German federal state as an indicator for challenges that may arise in other high-income countries.

In our prospective longitudinal study (starting 2005), we obtained the age and sex of the donors of all WBDs in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2019 and 2020 and compared them with the data from 2005 to 2015. Population data from the German statistical office were used to predict future WBD in two models, population-based and population-based with behaviour-adjusted prediction.

WBD decreased from 118,419 in 2005 to 83,871 in 2019 (-29.2%) and 76,912 in 2020 (-35.1%). Donation rates per 1000 inhabitants declined by 19.1% between 2005 and 2019, indicating a loss of donor motivation beyond demographic effects. Based on the donation numbers of 2019, we predict a further decline of WBD in 2030 by -12.7% (population-based projection) or -15.1% (behaviour-adjusted projection), respectively.

The decline in blood donations is no longer solely driven by demographic changes but also by reduced motivation among younger donors. As ageing populations and changing donor behaviour are common to many high-income countries, these findings likely reflect an emerging international trend. Targeted strategies to recruit and retain young donors are urgently needed to ensure sustainable blood supplies in ageing societies.