Patient-reported gradual worsening reveals progression beyond MS subtypes

Gradual worsening in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) may precede the formal transition to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). We aimed to quantify self-reported gradual worsening, assess concordance with clinically recorded subtype, and identify baseline predictors of discordance.

We included 1640 participants with incident RRMS from a population-based study (2005-2019). A 2021 follow-up survey captured patient-reported gradual worsening. Clinical data, including Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores and SPMS classification, were obtained from the Swedish MS registry. Discordance with clinically recorded subtype was modeled using logistic regression stratified by subtype. Time to EDSS 3 and EDSS 4 were summarized with Kaplan-Meier estimates within subtype by self-reported worsening, and secondary Cox proportional hazards models were fitted stratified by subtype with self-reported worsening as the exposure.

Among participants classified as RRMS, 24% reported gradual worsening, while 23% of those classified as SPMS did not. Kaplan-Meier curves showed clear within-subtype separation by self-reported worsening, consistent with higher hazards of reaching EDSS 3 and EDSS 4 among those reporting worsening. In RRMS, older age and higher baseline EDSS were associated with self-reported gradual worsening despite RRMS classification. In SPMS, self-reported worsening preceded clinical classification by 4.1 years.

Patient-reported gradual worsening aligns with disability accumulation and may help identify progression earlier than subtype reclassification, supporting integration of structured patient reports into routine monitoring.