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Influence of Public Child Welfare Caseworker Turnover on Child Safety Decision-Making

Michael R Hoffmeister^1,2

¹Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.

Child Maltreatment

|February 7, 2026

Abstract:

Child welfare caseworkers have significant decision-making authority, ultimately determining if allegations are substantiated, if a case should be opened for ongoing services, and if removal from the parental home is required. This research considers the role of caseworker turnover on these decisions, considering decisions for 372,968 unique screened-in reports assessed by 2,128 unique child welfare caseworkers in Wisconsin. Specifically, this study uses logistic regressions to estimate the likelihood of maltreatment substantiation, case opening, child removal, and the timeliness of the assessment as a function of the caseworker's timeline to departure from the public child welfare field, net of case-related characteristics, caseworker demographics, and county/year fixed effects. Results indicate that the odds of substantiation, case opening, and timely assessment are lower as caseworkers near departure. Findings expand our understanding of the consequences of turnover, highlighting how it influences case decisions and providing insight into effects on child and family well-being.

Keywords:

caseworker turnover child protective services child safety public child welfare safety decision-making

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