Impact of climate change on protected area effectiveness in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin: Implications...

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation but face increasing challenges due to climate change. While previous research has primarily focused on the spatial extent and expansion of PAs, limited attention has been paid to how climate change affects species distributions and, consequently, the effectiveness of PAs. Here, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to project range shifts of endangered species under future climate scenarios and developed five indicators across three dimensions-biodiversity, habitat condition, and climate connectivity-to comprehensively assess PA effectiveness in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. Our findings reveal that although PAs maintain some capacity to support biodiversity-especially in terms of habitat coverage and biodiversity representation-their overall effectiveness declines over time. This decline is primarily driven by reductions in species richness and habitat suitability, along with diminished climate connectivity, especially under the high-emission scenario. Overall, approximately 50% to 70% of current conservation gaps are projected to lose their critical conservation value, while an estimated 4000 to 5000 km² of gaps will remain important under future climate change. Meanwhile, newly emerged gaps highlight the inadequacies of the current PA network in addressing the challenges of climate change and underscore the urgent need to expand PAs for climate adaptation. Our findings emphasize the importance of adopting adaptive management strategies that integrate climate resilience into PA planning, ensuring their long-term viability in the face of changing environmental conditions.