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Type 2 diabetes in Norway 2009-2021: Have declining incidence rates continued?
Lars Bakke Hindenes1,2,3, Paz Lopez-Doriga Ruiz1,3,4, German Tapia1,3
1Department of Chronic Diseases, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Diabetic Medicine : a Journal of the British Diabetic Association
|February 8, 2026
Summary
Type 2 diabetes incidence in Norway declined then stabilized, but prevalence steadily increased from 2009-2021. Lower education and certain immigrant groups faced higher rates.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Diabetes Research
Background:
- Type 2 diabetes represents a significant public health challenge globally and in Norway.
- Understanding current trends in incidence and prevalence is crucial for effective public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze updated trends in diagnosed type 2 diabetes incidence and prevalence in Norway.
- To examine these trends across different demographic groups including age, sex, country of birth, and education level.
Main Methods:
- A nationwide cohort study utilizing Norwegian registries for healthcare, dispensed drugs, and demographics.
- Analysis of incidence trends from 2009-2021 using Poisson regression and JoinPoint analysis.
Main Results:
- Identified 195,935 incident cases and a rise in prevalent cases from 5.5% in 2009 to 7.6% in 2021.
- Incidence initially declined (2009-2014) but then stabilized with a slight increase (2019-2021).
- Higher incidence and prevalence were observed in individuals with lower education and those born in Asia or Africa.
Conclusions:
- The earlier decline in type 2 diabetes incidence was not sustained.
- Type 2 diabetes prevalence in Norway continued to rise throughout the study period (2009-2021).
- Disparities in incidence and prevalence exist based on socioeconomic and geographic factors.
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