[Development Path and Driving Factors of Sink Enhancement and Emission Reduction in Shaanxi Province Based on...

As a major global carbon emitter， China's provinces and municipalities contribute more than 90% of the country's carbon emissions， while the rest is mainly emitted by special administrative regions， trans-regional emission sources， and airspace and sea areas. How to accurately predict the carbon emissions of different provinces and municipalities and formulate emission reduction policies is the basis for realizing the national dual-carbon target and high-quality synergistic economic development. Taking Shaanxi Province， located in Northwest China， as an example， a top-down and bottom-up integrated RR-STIRPAT-LEAP model is developed using relevant cross-section data from 2000 to 2021， and the prediction accuracy is improved by optimizing the weights of sub-models. On this basis， the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province from 2022 to 2060 are forecasted， and five joint scenarios are designed to simulate the dual-carbon pathway of Shaanxi Province in combination with the carbon sink absorption model. The ReliefF algorithm is used to analyze the important potential drivers of carbon emission reduction. The results found that the prediction accuracy of the RR-STIRPAT-LEAP-Shaanxi model was significantly better than that of a single model， and the optimized model error was 0.24%. It was predicted that Shaanxi Province will reach its peak in 2030， and the emissions （in terms of tons） will be 419.09 million tons （Mt）. Under the joint scenario， macro-control-EMT-F Shaanxi Province will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060， with an emission of -25.69 million tons， indicating that ecological carbon sinks played an important role in achieving carbon neutrality. Comparison of carbon emission changes under different joint scenarios revealed that upgrading the energy structure and improving energy efficiency were the key drivers of Shaanxi Province's low-carbon transition and that the implementation of macroeconomic and sectoral energy consumption control strategies could reduce more carbon emissions. ReliefF showed that Shaanxi Province's carbon emission reduction focused on the following industrial sectors in order： industry > power generation > agriculture > residential sector > transportation， storage， and postal services > construction > other services. Among them， agriculture was not only an important source of carbon emissions but also an important carbon sink， and its potential for emission reduction should not be ignored. After comprehensively analyzing the short and medium to long-term carbon emission pathways and carbon emission reduction drivers， this study provides a pathway map for the synergistic development of Shaanxi Province， which will provide a scientific basis for government policymakers and relevant enterprises to formulate low-carbon and high-quality economic development plans.