[Land Use and Habitat Quality Changes and Simulations in Jiangxi Province Based on SD-PLUS-InVEST Model]

The impact of land use change on habitat quality is of great significance for advancing regional ecological civilization construction. In this study， Jiangxi Province， a national ecological civilization pilot zone， was selected as the study area. Land use data from 2000， 2010， and 2020 were used to analyze the characteristics of land use changes. Three representative scenarios from CMIP6， namely SSP119， SSP245， and SSP585， were adopted to simulate the patterns of land use change in 2040 and 2060 using the SD-PLUS model. Subsequently， the variations of habitat quality were assessed using the InVEST model. The results showed that： ① Between 2000 and 2020， land use change in Jiangxi Province exhibited a pattern of "rapid at first， then slowing down，" with land conversion rate in the first decade being 4.67 times that in the second decade. The primary transitions included mutual conversions among paddy field， dryland， forested land， and sparse forest land， as well as the transfer to urban land and other construction land. ② During this period， the mean habitat quality decreased by 3.57%， with medium， good， and excellent quality levels predominating. In contrast， poor and relatively poor levels were primarily concentrated in urban built-up areas and exhibited a "large-character" diffusion pattern along major transportation corridors. ③ Future scenarios indicated a continued reduction in cultivated land and an expansion of construction land. Under SSP119， forest land was significantly increased， resulting in the highest habitat quality. Under SSP245， a more balanced land-use pattern was observed， with moderate habitat quality. Under SSP585， the most pronounced expansion of construction land occurred， leading to the lowest habitat quality. ④ The improvement in habitat quality was primarily driven by the increase in forested land and sparse forest land. Conversely， the expansion of construction land and the conversion of forest land to cultivated land were the main factors contributing to the decline in habitat quality. These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological governance and sustainable development in Jiangxi Province.