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Multidimensional Flood Risk Analysis of High-Speed Rail Systems Under Future Climate Change.

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|February 9, 2026
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Global warming intensifies flood risks for high-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure. A new framework reveals significant future increases in HSR flood risk, especially in China, highlighting the need for climate-resilient planning.

Keywords:
Climate changeFlood hazardHigh‐speed railwayRisk assessmentRisk mitigation

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Infrastructure engineering
  • Risk assessment

Background:

  • Global warming exacerbates flood hazards, threatening critical infrastructure like high-speed rail (HSR).
  • Future climate change impacts on HSR systems are not well understood.
  • Existing HSR infrastructure faces increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an integrated framework for analyzing HSR flood risks under climate change.
  • To evaluate the multidimensional performance impacts of floods on HSR.
  • To identify key factors influencing HSR flood risk and propose effective maintenance strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a three-layer HSR model assessing topological, functional, and service dimensions.
  • Simulated future flood scenarios using the CaMa-Flood model.
  • Integrated flood impact data with occurrence probabilities for risk assessment and multifactor correlation analysis.

Main Results:

  • Chinese HSR flood risk is projected to rise significantly by the late 21st century, particularly in functional and service aspects (12%-35% increase).
  • Flood risk exhibits substantial provincial heterogeneity and is expected to worsen over time.
  • Higher socioeconomic status and operational capacity correlate with lower flood risk.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change poses a substantial and growing flood risk to HSR systems globally.
  • A risk-based maintenance strategy (RMS) is more efficient for mitigating HSR flood risks.
  • Findings provide guidance for developing climate-resilient HSR infrastructure and maintenance plans.