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Age-structured next generation matrix and R0 calculation for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP).

Yuqi Gao1,2, Nienke Hartemink1,3, Piter Bijma2

  • 1Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.

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Summary

Eradicating Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) is difficult due to its characteristics. This study uses an age-structured model to identify genetic and management strategies to reduce MAP transmission in dairy herds.

Keywords:
Age-structured populationBasic reproduction number (R0)Next generation matrix (NGM)ParatuberculosisTarget traits

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling
  • Animal Genetics

Background:

  • Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), presents significant eradication challenges in dairy herds.
  • Key challenges include age-specific susceptibility, lifelong infection, variable shedding, low diagnostic sensitivity, long latency, and environmental persistence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify MAP transmission dynamics in a closed, year-round calving, free stall dairy herd.
  • To evaluate the potential of genetic selection and herd management interventions for reducing the basic reproduction number (R₀).

Main Methods:

  • Development of an age-structured next-generation matrix (NGM) based on a compartmental model.
  • The NGM incorporates dam-to-calf and environmental transmission pathways.
  • Host demography and age-specific exposure are reflected through discrete one-week age groups and locations (calving pen, calf pen, adult pen).

Main Results:

  • The baseline NGM yielded a basic reproduction number (R₀) of 2.90.
  • The majority of new infections occurred in calves (91.1%), followed by newborns (5.01%) and adults (3.91%).
  • Reducing initial susceptibility or increasing the age-specific susceptibility decrease rate were identified as key genetic targets to lower R₀ below one.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a framework for quantifying farm-level MAP transmission.
  • Identifies critical host traits and herd management interventions for targeted control strategies.
  • Highlights the importance of age-specific dynamics in MAP transmission and control.