A Cox Rate-and-State Model for Monitoring Seismic Hazard in the Groningen Gas Field

Area of Science:

• Geophysics
• Seismology
• Petroleum Engineering

Background:

• Seismic hazard monitoring is crucial for the Groningen gas field.
• Existing models may not fully account for measurement noise and gas production impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To modify the rate-and-state model for improved seismic hazard monitoring.
• To incorporate noise in pore pressure measurements and gas production volumes.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of first and second-moment structures of the Cox process.
• Development of an unbiased estimating equation approach for parameter estimation.
• Derivation of the conditional distribution of the driving random measure.
• Utilizing a parallel Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm for sampling and hazard monitoring.

Main Results:

• The modified rate-and-state model provides a more robust framework for seismic hazard assessment.
• The proposed methods allow for accurate parameter estimation despite noisy data.
• The algorithm enables effective monitoring of induced seismic hazard.

Conclusions:

• The enhanced model offers a significant improvement for seismic hazard monitoring in production fields.
• This approach is vital for ensuring safety and managing risks associated with gas extraction.
• Further application of this methodology can enhance operational safety in similar geological settings.