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Updated: Feb 11, 2026

Implementation of Portable Emissions Measurement Systems PEMS for the Real-driving Emissions RDE Regulation in Europe
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Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems.

Chaohui Li1,2, Maximilian Kotz1,3, Prajal Pradhan1,4

  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam D-14412, Germany.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|February 9, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Climate change will significantly reduce global grazing suitability by 2100, impacting millions of pastoralists and livestock. This threatens livelihoods, especially in vulnerable regions, highlighting urgent adaptation needs for sustainable grazing systems.

Keywords:
climate change impactsgrazing systemsinequalitysafe climatic space

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Agricultural Science

Background:

  • Grazing systems are extensive global production systems highly sensitive to climate change.
  • Understanding the global-scale sensitivity and vulnerability of grazing systems to climate impacts is crucial but remains poorly understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess how climate change will reshape global grassland-based grazing systems using the safe climatic space framework.
  • To evaluate the impact of changing climatic drivers (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed) on grazing suitability.

Main Methods:

  • Application of the safe climatic space framework to analyze global grazing suitability.
  • Projection of changes in climatic drivers and their effects on grazing areas by 2100.

Main Results:

  • A projected net decline of 36% to 50% in climate suitability for grazing by 2100.
  • Significant inter- and intracontinental shifts in grazing suitability are expected.
  • Negative impacts on 110–140 million pastoralists and 1.4–1.6 billion livestock, with severe consequences for Africa.

Conclusions:

  • Future climate change poses a substantial threat to global grazing suitability.
  • Livelihoods of numerous communities are endangered, with potential for widespread socioeconomic consequences.
  • Vulnerable populations in low-income, food-insecure, and politically fragile countries are disproportionately affected, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies.