Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Science
• Agricultural Science

Background:

• Grazing systems are extensive global production systems highly sensitive to climate change.
• Understanding the global-scale sensitivity and vulnerability of grazing systems to climate impacts is crucial but remains poorly understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess how climate change will reshape global grassland-based grazing systems using the safe climatic space framework.
• To evaluate the impact of changing climatic drivers (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed) on grazing suitability.

Main Methods:

• Application of the safe climatic space framework to analyze global grazing suitability.
• Projection of changes in climatic drivers and their effects on grazing areas by 2100.

Main Results:

• A projected net decline of 36% to 50% in climate suitability for grazing by 2100.
• Significant inter- and intracontinental shifts in grazing suitability are expected.
• Negative impacts on 110–140 million pastoralists and 1.4–1.6 billion livestock, with severe consequences for Africa.

Conclusions:

• Future climate change poses a substantial threat to global grazing suitability.
• Livelihoods of numerous communities are endangered, with potential for widespread socioeconomic consequences.
• Vulnerable populations in low-income, food-insecure, and politically fragile countries are disproportionately affected, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies.