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Updated: Feb 12, 2026

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Published on: September 22, 2010
Estimates of cancer incidence to 2025 in Italy: Numbers and rates
Sabrina Fabiano1, Viviana Perotti1, Paolo Contiero2
1Cancer Registry Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Via Venezian 1, Milan, Italy.
Objectives:
We forecasted the incidence of malignant tumours in Italy in 2025, using the most representative estimates of incidence rates and recent trends in cancer incidence available. A comparison with estimates for 2025 obtained using different assumptions and data sets is also presented.
Methods:
34 cancer registries (81 % of the Italian population) were used to estimate incidence rate trends in 2013-2017, by cancer types, sex, and age. The stratified incidence rates were projected until 2025 by applying trends in the same strata, using a linear regression model with the calendar year as an independent variable.
Results:
We estimated 362,100 new cancer cases in Italy in 2025 (182,300 in men, 179,800 in women). Prostate is the most frequent cancer site in men (31,200 cases; age-standardised incidence rates-ASR=92.3 per 100,000), followed by lung (27,100, ASR=80.9), bladder, and colon-rectum (23,000 cases each; ASR=69.0). 55,900 women were estimated to be diagnosed with breast cancer (ASR=159.0 per 100,000), 18,900 with colorectal (ASR=47.0) and 16,400 with lung cancers (ASR=41.0).
Conclusions:
Our estimates were slightly lower than those based on other assumptions and/or different datasets (i.e., ECIS/GLOBOCAN ones). More effective anti-smoking campaigns are needed to halt the predicted increase in smoking-related cancers among women.
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