Mathematical modelling of Wolbachia replacement in Aedes aegypti for dengue control: a scoping review

Wolbachia replacement in dengue virus vectors is a promising tool for controlling transmission, and models can explore its potential in novel and complex scenarios. We analyse how research questions in Wolbachia replacement modelling have developed over time and in response to empirical findings. A scoping review was conducted of Wolbachia replacement models. For each study, we extracted research questions, key findings and modelling methodology and thematically categorized research questions. From 726 search results, 115 studies met inclusion criteria. Four themes were identified: identifying key Wolbachia characteristics (n = 61, 53.0%), investigating effects of environmental heterogeneity (n = 21, 18.3%), estimating epidemiological impact (n = 25, 21.7%) and exploring Wolbachia replacement in combination with other arboviral control measures (n = 8, 7.0%). Models identify cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and maternal transmission (MT) as key for fixation success. However, less than 20% (n = 6) of studies parameterize CI and MT using empirical sources. Although models agree outbreaks may occur with fixation, few explore epidemiological outcomes of heterogeneous Wolbachia fixation or combined vector control. These findings highlight the need for empirical parameterization and incorporating environmental complexity for models to remain insightful for decision-making. Policymakers would benefit from future models exploring heterogeneous coverage and combined control strategies, given evidence of context-specific outcomes and diverse control tools.