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Published on: December 4, 2016
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Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe.
A Al-Yaari1,2, D Swingedouw3, P Braconnot4
1Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, F-33600, Pessac, France. amen.al.yaari@vub.be.
Nature Communications
|February 10, 2026
Summary
North Atlantic internal variability significantly impacts European temperatures. This study confirms this multi-centennial mode, linked to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, explaining recent amplified warming.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Paleoclimatology
- Oceanography
Background:
- Europe has experienced significant warming in recent decades.
- North Atlantic multi-centennial internal variability is hypothesized to influence European temperatures.
- Limited high-resolution proxy data has previously hindered observational assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate the existence and quantify the amplitude of multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic.
- To assess the influence of this variability on European temperatures.
- To link this variability to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Main Methods:
- Compilation of annual-to-decadal proxy-based Holocene reconstructions.
- Integration of instrumental observations.
- Analysis of climate model simulations.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated the existence of a multi-centennial variability mode in the North Atlantic.
- Quantified the amplitude of this variability mode.
- Established a strong link between this mode and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's internal variability.
- Showed that this mode explains part of the 20th-century temperature variability.
- Identified a shift to a positive phase in the late 1990s, contributing to amplified recent European warming.
- Quantified that this internal variability may enhance anthropogenic warming in Northern Europe by up to 30% over 2000-2035.
Conclusions:
- The multi-centennial internal variability mode significantly influences European climate.
- The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's variability is a key driver of this mode.
- This natural variability plays a crucial role in modulating anthropogenic warming trends in Europe.
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