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Factors Affecting the Risk of Infection01:26

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Quantifying Vibrio Infection Risks From Beach Recreation Along U.S. Eastern Seaboard in Year 2100.

Yen-Hsiang Huang1, Sunny Jiang1

  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Irvine CA USA.

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|February 11, 2026
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Rising sea temperatures increase the risk of Vibrio infections from recreational activities. This study predicts a significant rise in Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections by 2100, highlighting the need for adaptive public health strategies.

Keywords:
Vibriobeach recreational activitiesclimate changeglobal warmingquantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental microbiology
  • Public health
  • Climate change impact assessment

Background:

  • Marine vibrios are opportunistic pathogens that thrive in warmer waters.
  • Increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) raise concerns about human infection risks during marine recreation.
  • The U.S. Eastern Seaboard faces elevated risks due to climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate health risks associated with Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections.
  • To assess risks from water ingestion during recreational activities under future climate scenarios.
  • To predict Vibrio infection probabilities based on projected SSTs over the next 75 years.

Main Methods:

  • Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was employed.
  • Monte Carlo simulations integrated Vibrio concentrations, ingestion doses, and dose-response data.
  • Risk projections were made for 2020 (current SSTs) and 2100 (projected SSTs under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5).

Main Results:

  • Median risks of V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus infections are projected to increase significantly by 2100.
  • Risks may rise up to 1,000-fold under RCP 8.5 and 100-fold under RCP 2.6.
  • Estimated risks are a lower-bound, excluding wound infections.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change, specifically rising SSTs, substantially elevates Vibrio infection risks.
  • Adaptive management strategies are crucial for mitigating public health impacts.
  • Future research should consider wound infections for a comprehensive risk assessment.