Effectiveness and heterogeneous impacts of traffic safety education on non-motorized vehicle violations

While Traffic Safety Education is regarded as a cornerstone intervention for reducing traffic violations, the persistence of its effects and the heterogeneity of its impact across populations remain inadequately investigated. This study evaluates the differential effectiveness and temporal dynamics of TSE among recidivist non-motorized vehicle users in City A Hangzhou, China, including riders of bicycles, electric bicycles and tricycles, and aims to identify subgroups that would benefit most from precision intervention strategies.

Traffic Safety Education is a mandatory intervention administered by traffic police, combined in-person and online modules on traffic rules and safety. Completion was required for all offenders identified through on-site or electronic monitoring. We developed a multidimensional analytical framework integrating segmented linear regression through interrupted time-series with event-study designs to estimate both immediate and sustained effects of TSE interventions. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and first-order Markov transition matrices were employed to quantify behavioral persistence and transition patterns. The analysis utilized 68,426 officially documented violation records from 13,312 individuals who completed TSE between 2021 and 2023. Subgroup analyses by age, gender, and violation type were conducted to examine heterogeneous post-intervention behavioral trajectories.

Substantial heterogeneity in TSE effectiveness was observed across demographic and behavioral subgroups. Recidivism declined steadily with age, from 43.7% among riders aged 18-25 to 36.1% among those over 60, indicating stronger behavioral self-regulation in older cohorts. Violations such as 'disobeying traffic signals' and 'failing to wear helmets' exhibited the highest recurrence rates, suggesting ingrained habits less amenable to short-term educational efforts. Female riders demonstrated a six-month recidivism rate approximately 10 percentage points lower than males. Overall, the violation-free survival probability declined to 56.6% within six months post-intervention, reflecting an initial improvement in compliance that attenuated over time. Transition analysis further indicated that most relapses occurred within the first three months, highlighting the short-term nature of behavioral modification.

The results reveal significant heterogeneity in behavioral responses to TSE and limited durability of its deterrent effects. To foster long-term behavioral change, TSE programs should transition from uniform delivery to precision-targeted approaches, focusing on high-risk subgroups-especially younger riders, habitual offenders, and individuals with rapid relapse patterns. Integrating sustained educational reinforcement with targeted enforcement and personalized feedback may enhance behavioral retention and improve overall traffic safety outcomes.