Simple mechanistic traits outperform complex syndromes in predicting avian dispersal distances

Dispersal is a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process, but identifying its determinants and predicting it across species remains a major challenge. Dispersal syndromes, which describe patterns of covariation among traits related to dispersal, are thought to capture general rules of dispersal evolution and its ecological consequences. Based on the most comprehensive empirical dispersal dataset available for European birds, we test how dispersal syndromes form and how well they predict dispersal across species. We found that distinct dispersal processes were governed by different trait combinations, with body mass consistently predicting overall dispersal, whereas flight efficiency was key for long-distance dispersal events. However, multi-trait dispersal syndromes performed poorly for phylogenetically distant species and were outperformed by models based on single mechanistic traits, especially body mass, life history, and, to a lesser extent, flight efficiency. Thus, single traits with clear mechanistic meaning predict avian dispersal ability better than complex syndromes. These findings highlight the complexity of avian dispersal and emphasize the need for refined mechanistic approaches to understand the constraints shaping dispersal evolution. Together, our study calls for broader empirical efforts and more mechanistic frameworks to uncover the evolutionary and ecological drivers of dispersal.