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Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Digestive Tract Diseases in Chinese Patients With
Xinming Chen1,2, Chenxiong Zhang3, Yunsheng He4
1First Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.
Geriatrics & Gerontology International
|February 12, 2026
Summary
This study developed a predictive model to identify individuals with depression at high risk for digestive tract diseases. The model aids in early detection and personalized prevention strategies for gastrointestinal conditions.
Area of Science:
- Medical Informatics
- Gastroenterology
- Psychiatry
Background:
- Depression is associated with an increased risk of digestive tract diseases.
- Early identification of high-risk individuals is crucial for timely intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a risk prediction model for digestive tract diseases in depressed individuals.
- To facilitate early identification and guide personalized preventive interventions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data (2011, 2015).
- Employed eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), LASSO regression, and logistic regression for factor identification.
- Constructed and validated a nomogram model using ROC curve, calibration curve, DCA, and CIC.
Main Results:
- Included 4006 depressed patients; 31.4% had gastrointestinal diseases.
- Key predictors: UA, HCT, sleep quality, exercise difficulty, hypertension, chest pain, chronic lung, heart, kidney diseases, arthritis.
- External validation AUC: 0.693, demonstrating good predictive accuracy and clinical utility.
Conclusions:
- The developed model effectively predicts gastrointestinal diseases in depressed individuals.
- Enables early identification and targeted preventive measures for high-risk populations.
- Aims to reduce the incidence of gastrointestinal diseases in this cohort.
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