The evolutionary logic of socialized older population care service demand in rural areas based on the HAPC model

Chinese rural areas have entered a stage of moderate population aging ahead of urban regions, where mismatches between the supply and demand of older population care services are particularly pronounced. Establishing a socialized older population care service system has therefore become a critical response to the challenges posed by rural aging. This study develops a theoretical framework to explain the demand generation mechanism for rural socialized older population care services, identifying key influencing factors under both policy-driven and individual choice scenarios. Using data from the China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 2005 to 2018, we employ a hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) model to examine the effects of age, period, and cohort on service demand. The results show that period effects are characterized by fluctuating upward trends in demand for both basic and expanded care services, primarily driven by changes in policy environments and economic conditions. Cohort effects significantly shape demand for expanded care services, but not for basic care services, with notable heterogeneity across regions and gender groups. Overall, rural demand for socialized older population care services is jointly influenced by age, period, and cohort dynamics. These findings suggest that optimizing the supply of older population care services in rural areas requires better alignment with differentiated demand characteristics to improve service relevance and effectiveness.