Prediction of Mutations and Outcome in Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors with Deep Learning: A Multicenter,...

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumor, driven by tyrosine-protein kinase KIT and platelet-derived growth factor receptor A (PDGFRA) mutations. Specific variants, such as KIT exon 11 deletions, carry prognostic and therapeutic implications, whereas wild-type (WT) variants derive limited benefit from tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Given the limited reproducibility of established clinicopathological risk models, deep learning (DL) applied to whole-slide images (WSIs) emerged as a promising tool for molecular classification and prognostic assessment.

We analyzed 8398 GIST cases from 21 centers in 7 countries, including 7238 with molecular data and 2638 with clinical follow-up. DL models were trained on WSIs to predict mutations, treatment sensitivity, and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

DL predicted mutational status in GIST from WSIs, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87 for KIT, 0.96 for PDGFRA. High performance was observed for subtypes, including KIT exon 11 del-inss 557-558 (0.67) and PDGFRA exon 18 D842V (0.93). For therapeutic categories, performance reached 0.84 for avapritinib sensitivity, 0.81 for imatinib sensitivity. DL models predicted RFS, with hazard-ratios (HR) of 8.44 (95%CI 6.14-11.61) in the overall cohort and 4.74 (95%CI 3.34-6.74) in patients receiving adjuvant therapy. Prognostic performance was comparable to pathology-based scores, with highest discrimination in the overall cohort and in patients without adjuvant therapy (9.44, 95%CI (5.87-15.20)).

DL applied to WSIs enables prediction of molecular alterations, treatment sensitivity, and RFS in GIST, performing comparably to established risk scores across international cohorts, providing a baseline for future multimodal predictors.