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Published on: March 1, 2024
Deterministic modelling of asymptomatic spread and disease stage progression in vaccine preventable infectious
Gabor Kiss1, Salissou Moutari1, Cara Mctaggart1
1Mathematical Sciences Research Centre School of Mathematics & Physics Queen's University Belfast Belfast UK.
Abstract:
This study introduces a deterministic formulation for modelling the asymptotic spread of a vaccine preventable disease as well as the different stages for the progression of the disease. We derive the formula for the associated basic reproduction number. To illustrate the proposed model, we use data from the 2017-2018 diphtheria outbreak in Yemen and fit the parameters of the model. A sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number, with respect to the model parameters, show that this number increases with an increase of the transmission rate while this number decreases when vaccination rate increases.
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