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America's Plastic Surgery Crisis: What 2022-2037 Projections Reveal About Workforce Vulnerabilities.

Victor F A Almeida¹, John Ha^2,3, Thomas Penney⁴

¹Department of Anesthesiology, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.

Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery

|February 12, 2026

Summary

The US faces a significant plastic surgeon shortage by 2037, with supply declining 22% while demand rises. This impacts access, especially in rural areas, requiring policy interventions for equitable care.

Keywords:

Geographic disparities Health policy Physician supply and demand Plastic surgery workforce Workforce planning

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Area of Science:

Health Services Research
Medical Workforce Analysis
Public Health Policy

Background:

The United States faces a growing demand for plastic surgery services.
Understanding future workforce trends is crucial for healthcare planning and patient access.

Purpose of the Study:

To project the supply and demand of plastic surgeons in the US through 2037.
To identify potential geographic disparities and factors contributing to future shortages.
To inform policy recommendations for ensuring adequate access to plastic surgery care.

Main Methods:

Utilized the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) for national projections.
Modeled workforce supply using full-time equivalents (FTEs), considering graduation, attrition, and retirement.
Incorporated demographic trends, service utilization, and physician-to-population ratios for demand projections.

Main Results:

Projected a 22% decline in plastic surgeon supply (10,960 to 8,540 FTEs) by 2037 under status quo.
Anticipated a nearly 6% increase in demand, rising over 40% if access barriers are removed.
National adequacy is expected to fall from 100% (2022) to 73% (2037), with severe rural disparities.

Conclusions:

The US plastic surgery workforce faces a significant projected shortage by 2037.
Key challenges include demographic shifts, geographic maldistribution, and reimbursement issues.
Policy interventions focusing on equitable distribution, incentives, scope of practice, and technology are essential.