Unveiling the neglected threat: Probabilistic risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in geogenically...

In karst regions, surface soils exhibit significant accumulation of potentially toxic elements (PTEs), primarily due to the weathering of carbonate parent rocks, which lead to geogenic contamination. It is generally believed that the active parts of PTEs are leached out and the remaining components are mainly inert components, therefore the risk is neglected. This study evaluated PTEs in 6467 soil samples, assessing their characteristics, bioavailability, and risks through Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic health risk evaluation. Results revealed that concentrations of Cr, As, and Cd significantly exceeded background soil values, with 27.8 %, 20.8 %, and 19.8 % of samples surpassing risk screening thresholds, respectively. Assessments based on total concentrations identified As as the dominant contributor to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks. However, bioavailability-based evaluations shifted priority to Cd, highlighting overestimation in total-based methods. Sensitivity analyses pinpointed As concentration, ingestion rate, and body weight as key influencers, with soil pH the primary driver of bioavailability. Risks varied by soil type: Cambisols showed lower Cd bioavailability and risks, while Acrisols and Anthrosols exhibited higher risks due to acidic conditions and poor buffering; for As, Ferralsols had elevated total-based risks from goethite adsorption. These findings underscore the need for bioavailability-inclusive, soil type-specific risk thresholds and prioritized Cd management in karst agricultural strategies.