Decarbonizing transportation through electric vehicles: A life cycle perspective across China, Europe, and the USA

Over the past decades, the use of electric vehicles (EVs) has steadily increased as many countries promote EVs to replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector. This study employs the life cycle assessment (LCA) software SimaPro 9.5, integrated with the Ecoinvent 3.9.1 database, to quantify and compare the GHG emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and ICEVs in China, Europe and USA. A cradle-to-grave (CTG) system is adopted, encompassing vehicle manufacturing, energy production, use, and end-of-life (EoL) treatment. Also, Optimization scenarios for BEV operation are explored by considering electricity mix, battery use strategies, and total driving mileage over the vehicle's lifetime. Under optimization scenario, BEVs can reduce GHG emissions by 0.25, 0.18 and 0.26 kg CO₂ equivalent (CO₂-eq) per vehicle per kilometer compared to ICEVs baseline scenario in China, Europe and the USA, respectively. According to Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and optimal BEV scenario, compared with ICEVs baseline scenario, BEVs are projected to achieve the maximum GHG reductions by 2030 in China, Europe, and the USA, reaching approximately 254.7, 76.8, and 55.0 Tg CO₂-eq, respectively, regardless of whether the model-defined default annual mileage or empirically observed annual driving distances are used. Meanwhile, this study evaluates the influence of policy orientation and automotive industry development trends on the future GHG emission reductions potential of BEVs, with the aim of providing decision-making support for optimizing low-carbon transportation pathways.