Wildfires on a changing planet

Area of Science:

• Earth System Science
• Climate Change Impacts
• Wildfire Dynamics

Background:

• Global wildfire distribution is influenced by changing climate, land use, and vegetation.
• Understanding future wildfire trajectories is crucial for ecological and societal planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project future wildfire patterns (burnt area, fire size, intensity) under different warming scenarios (~1.5°C and 3-4°C).
• To assess the impact of climate change mitigation on wildfire regimes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized global empirical models for burnt area, fire size, and fire intensity.
• Simulated wildfire trajectories under middle-of-the-road socio-economic conditions.

Main Results:

• Projected changes in wildfire patterns by the late 21st century, even under ~1.5°C warming.
• Reduced burning in tropical regions due to human activity, but larger, more intense fires in extra-tropical regions driven by climate and CO2.
• Significant burnt area increases across all vegetation types under low climate mitigation scenarios.

Conclusions:

• Current fire-suppression policies may become ineffective globally, even with climate mitigation.
• Forest expansion strategies must account for increased wildfire risks.
• Future wildfire regimes necessitate adaptive management and policy adjustments.