Development of an Explainable Machine Learning Computational Model for the Prediction of Severe Complications After...

The objective of the present study was to apply supervised Machine Learning to predict severe complications after equine orchiectomy. A dataset of 612 cases of orchiectomies in stallions was used for the development of a computational model, among which in 8.5% of cases severe complications (colic, continued stallion-like behaviour, evisceration, funiculitis, haemorrhage, and scrotal infection) were diagnosed post-orchiectomy. Three supervised Machine Learning tools were employed: Logistic Regression (12 different models evaluated), Random Forest (64 models), and Gradient Boosting (8 models). For the prediction of the development of severe complications post-orchiectomy, Logistic Regression was the tool that produced the best discrimination measures, where accuracy, precision and recall were 0.9134, 0.8391, and 0.9133, respectively. The results of the analysis for SHapley Additive exPlanations values for the impact of the independent variables in the prediction of the development of complications indicated that (a) the age of the horse and (b) the surgical technique employed were the two variables that mostly influenced the prediction outcome, findings that were unambiguous in the models developed by any Machine Learning tool. The findings of this study indicate that computational models could be used as adjunct tools to support clinical decisions in the peri-operative management of horses.