The Large Variability in Response to Future Climate and Land-Use Changes Among Large- and Medium-Sized Terrestrial...

While climate change and land-use change are known to interact in their effects on species' range shifts, most studies have only focused on their isolated and combined effects, hindering a comprehensive understanding of their effects on future species distributions. In this study, we assessed the isolated and combined effects of future climate change and land-use change on range shifts of 23 large- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals in the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) range, as well as the impact of land-use change on climate change effects, by comparing projections for three model configurations: (1) dynamic climate and static land-use covariates, (2) static climate and dynamic land-use covariates, and (3) dynamic climate and dynamic land-use covariates. We find that all three types of models projected an average net loss of suitable habitat areas across the 23 mammalian species. Moreover, we find that although there is a large variation in individual species' responses to both the single climate change and single land-use change, climate change impacts dominate responses for most species, while land-use change impacts were nonsignificant or weak. Finally, the effect of land-use change on climate change projections reveals that land-use change could amplify or offset some of the negative effects of future climate change. These findings highlight that adopting effective land-based conservation management strategies to mitigate the impacts of future climate change on large- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals in the giant panda range is of great urgency and significance, but these strategies should take into account the large variation in individual species' responses to both climate change and land-use change.