A Clinically Applicable Nomogram for Live Birth Prediction After IVF: The Zubeyde Hanim Model

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Medicine
• In Vitro Fertilization (IVF)
• Clinical Prediction Models

Background:

• Predicting live birth in IVF is crucial for patient counseling and treatment planning.
• Existing prediction models may not utilize routinely available clinical and embryological data effectively.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a clinically applicable nomogram for predicting live birth after IVF.
• To identify key predictors of live birth using routinely collected data.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective study at a single tertiary IVF center.
• Inclusion of 2119 IVF/ICSI cycles with embryo transfer and known live birth outcomes.
• Multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify independent predictors of live birth.

Main Results:

• The Zübeyde Hanim IVF Nomogram was developed using female age, embryo quality, day of embryo transfer, and endometrial thickness.
• The nomogram demonstrated acceptable discrimination (AUC: 0.64) and satisfactory calibration.
• Key predictors identified: female age (OR: 0.959), high embryo quality (OR: 2.752), day 5 transfer (OR: 1.427), and endometrial thickness (OR: 1.086).

Conclusions:

• The Zübeyde Hanim IVF Nomogram is a practical tool for individualized prediction of IVF live birth.
• The nomogram aids clinicians in patient counseling and optimizing treatment strategies.
• Utilizes routinely available parameters for enhanced clinical applicability.