Preoperative Inflammatory Burden Index Predicts Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A...

Background/Objectives: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common and serious complication after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), leading to increased morbidity and healthcare utilization. Although systemic inflammation is a well-established driver of POAF pathogenesis, no composite preoperative inflammatory biomarker has been validated for risk stratification in this population. This study aimed to evaluate the novel Inflammatory Burden Index (IBI)-the first composite biomarker combining acute-phase (C-reactive protein, CRP) and chronic cellular (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, NLR) inflammation-as a preoperative predictor of POAF after CABG. Methods: In this large retrospective cohort study, we included 3481 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG at a high-volume cardiac center between 2019 and 2024. Preoperative IBI was calculated as CRP (mg/dL) × NLR. The primary outcome was new-onset POAF within the first 7 postoperative days, confirmed by continuous telemetry on 12-lead ECG. Predictive performance was assessed using multivariable logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (area under the curve, AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and internal validation via bootstrapping (1000 resamples). Results: POAF developed in 866 patients (24.9%). Patients with POAF exhibited significantly higher preoperative IBI levels (39.4 ± 18.6 vs. 26.3 ± 16.7, p < 0.01). In multivariable analysis adjusted for age, hypertension, left atrial diameter, and other clinical covariates, IBI emerged as a strong independent predictor of POAF (adjusted OR 1.041, 95% CI 1.036-1.046, p < 0.01). The IBI alone demonstrated moderate-to-good discriminative performance (AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.74), significantly outperforming the Systemic Immune/Inflammation Index (SII; AUC 0.61, DeLong test p < 0.001) and providing superior reclassification (NRI 0.150, IDI 0.032) and model fit (lower AIC). Combining IBI with established clinical risk factors further improved predictive accuracy (combined AUC 0.74, specificity 72.4%). Tertile-based stratification revealed a clear graded relationship with POAF incidence (low IBI: 16.6%, medium: 21.3%, high: 35.1%; p = 0.02). Notably, the medium IBI stratum (11.18-25.44) displayed the highest discriminative power (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.88), with bootstrap validation confirming model stability (minimal bias, robust 95% CI). Conclusions: This study establishes the preoperative Inflammatory Burden Index (IBI) as the first validated composite inflammatory biomarker independently associated with POAF following CABG. Its superior performance over existing indices (SII), graded risk stratification, and peak accuracy in the moderate inflammation window highlight its potential for personalized preoperative risk assessment and targeted perioperative intervention strategies.