Pressure of Invasive Alien Species Trachemys scripta on Native Species Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Throughout the world, climate change is having many adverse impacts, ranging from the decline of biodiversity to the economic downturn. Increasing temperature will continue to affect microorganisms and ecosystems in a very wide range. In order to mitigate the severity of this irreversible process, it would be helpful to analyze the anticipated scenarios for the coming years. For this purpose, the invasive alien species Trachemys scripta and the native species Emys orbicularis, Mauremys caspica and Mauremys rivulata in Türkiye were projected with five different climate models (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-ESM2-1, GISS-E2-1-G, and MIROC6) for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090. Suitable habitat areas, habitat expansions, and habitat contractions of species with climate change were modeled. Based on the results of these models, it appears that habitat expansions in the future will probably result in an increase in competition between native and invasive species. Due to habitat contraction in the west, the T. scripta species is expected to migrate toward the coast, which may lead to population declines for E. orbicularis and M. rivulata, especially along the Mediterranean coast. Furthermore, M. caspica, which is distributed in the east, is likely to move toward the western and southern regions due to climate change, where it could compete for habitat with T. scripta as it experiences habitat contraction in the north. This suggests that climate change and the impact of invasive species will lead to habitat loss for native species in the future. Considering this data, it is recommended to increase collection and monitoring efforts in coastal areas where the T. scripta species is currently densely distributed in order to mitigate the occurrence of this predicted scenario in the future.