Effect of Ultraprocessed Foods Taxation on Overweight Prevalence and Noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil

Modeling studies have shown that taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages and other unhealthy foods can reduce obesity and noncommunicable diseases, yet no previous study has specifically evaluated the potential health effects of taxing the entire group of ultraprocessed foods. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential impact of ultra-processed foods taxation on overweight prevalence and noncommunicable disease incident cases and deaths among Brazilian adults from 2024 to 2044.

A multistate life table model was performed to compare a business-as-usual scenario with 3 taxation scenarios over 20 years: price increases of (1) 10%, (2) 20%, and (3) 50%. The model incorporated national demographic projections, epidemiologic data from 11 noncommunicable diseases, distribution of BMI among Brazilian adults, price elasticity for ultra-processed foods and overweight, and relative risks linking BMI and each noncommunicable disease.

By 2044, overweight prevalence is projected to rise from 57% (2023) to 75% under business-as-usual scenario, but to only 67%, 63%, and 50% with 10%, 20%, and 50% ultra-processed food taxation, respectively. Price increases of ultra-processed food by 10%, 20%, and 50% were projected to prevent 525 thousand, 861 thousand, and 1.8 million new noncommunicable disease incident cases and 70 thousand, 115 thousand, and 236 thousand noncommunicable disease deaths, respectively.

The taxation of ultra-processed foods may be an effective public health strategy to reduce noncommunicable disease burden in Brazil.