Forensic age progression for missing person investigations: A pilot evaluation of recognition accuracy

Forensic age progression is widely used to support long-term missing person investigations by estimating an individual's potential current appearance. Empirical validation of this technique remains limited, and systematic evaluations of its accuracy are scarce. This pilot study examines the recognizability of age-progressed facial images derived from childhood and adolescent photographs of two adult participants (Subject A and Subject B) attending a scientific congress, aiming to provide preliminary insight into the conditions under which age progression may succeed or fail. A forensic anthropologist-blinded to the participants' current appearance-produced age progressions to age 25 following established morphological assessment principles. The resulting images were anonymously displayed during the meeting, where 105 attendees with no specific training in age progression attempted to identify the portrayed individuals among those present. Recognition performance differed between the two subjects, with 79.1% correct identifications for Subject A and 54.3% for Subject B. Qualitative comparison between the age-progressed and current photographs showed both accurate feature predictions and discrepancies influenced by lighting conditions, facial orientation, and individual morphological variation. This preliminary investigation highlights the potential value of forensic age progression while emphasizing its challenges. The findings underscore the need for larger, systematically controlled validation studies to improve the reliability and forensic applicability of age progression in missing person cases.