The Prototype Willingness Model of Sports Betting: A Yearlong Within-Person Study of Young Adults

Burgeoning evidence of sports betting harms among young adults highlights the need to refine our understanding of psychosocial processes driving sports betting behavior. This study longitudinally examined sports betting patterns over time within the Prototype Willingness Model (PWM), a dual-process behavioral model comprised of both a reasoned and socially reactive component. Participants included 210 18-29 year olds (77.1% male; mean age 24.5) who reported placing at least two sports bets in the past month (at screening). Participants reported past two-week sports betting frequency (i.e., number of sports bets placed) and PWM cognitions (i.e., attitudes, normative perceptions, perceived vulnerability, prototype similarity, intentions, willingness) on 26 biweekly surveys covering a year-long study period. Findings generally support the PWM's application to sports betting at the within-person level for the reasoned and social reaction pathways. When attitudes and perceived friend approval of sports betting were higher than usual, participants reported greater intentions to sports bet. When prototype similarity and perceived friend engagement in sports betting were higher than usual, participants reported greater willingness to sports bet. Subsequently, intentions and willingness predicted sports betting frequency, reflecting mediation processes. This study provides foundational evidence for the development of adaptive prevention and intervention strategies - grounded in the PWM framework - to address the cognitive processes that facilitate risky sports betting behavior.