A system dynamics model for evaluating tire wear particle mitigation strategies

Tire wear particles are a major source of microplastic emissions, making effective mitigation an urgent topic. Mitigation strategies are complex, as they involve multiple dimensions, trade-offs, and potential unintended consequences. To address this, we developed a system dynamics model to predict the environmental release of tire wear particles and evaluate the impact of intervention strategies, parameterized for the Netherlands. By including both key and secondary impact indicators, the model allows assessment not only of the environmental tire wear particle release but also of broader consequences such as road safety and carbon dioxide emissions. The model was constructed through a combination of literature review, expert consultation, and stakeholder engagement, which enhanced both the model structure and its practical relevance. Backcasting and validation confirmed its structural and behavioral soundness. Two hypothetical policy scenarios illustrate the model's ability to explore system-wide effects and identify effective interventions. Although developed for the Netherlands, the approach is transferable to other regions, providing a flexible tool for analyzing mitigation strategies. Methodologically, the study demonstrates how system dynamics can be applied to complex microplastic challenges by integrating technical modeling with social dimensions, such as mobility trends and driving behavior. In practice, the model can provide a foundation for stakeholders to systematically compare and evaluate tire wear particle mitigation strategies.