Compound Dry-Hot Events Intensify Widespread Lake Deoxygenation in China

Lake deoxygenation, driven by climatic warming and anthropogenic influences, threatens aquatic ecosystems. As climate change intensifies, compound dry-hot events (CDHEs) are projected to exert growing pressure on lake oxygen dynamics, yet their role in driving deoxygenation remains unclear. Using multisource data sets and machine learning, we analyzed surface dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics and the percent saturation (DO_%sat) in 11,571 Chinese lakes from 2000 to 2020, quantified CDHE impacts, and projected future trajectories under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We found widespread and continuous deoxygenation in China, with 52.2% of lakes showing significant declines (average of -0.12 mg/L/decade and -1.28%/decade for DO and DO_%sat, respectively), most pronounced on the Tibetan Plateau and Mongolian Lakes. Intensifying CDHEs, particularly in arid or semiarid regions, increasingly amplified lake surface deoxygenation through their duration and severity. Projections indicate nationwide declines of DO (0.73-1.01 mg/L) and DO_%sat (4.08-10.73%) by 2099 under all SSP scenarios, with Tibetan Plateau lakes showing the most severe deoxygenation. From a long-term perspective, air temperature and precipitation dominate the climatic drivers of deoxygenation for low-elevation plain lakes, while wind speed and air pressure are key for high-altitude and semiarid region lakes. Our findings highlight the urgency of incorporating climate extremes into lake management water-quality planning to safeguard freshwater resources.