Interobserver variability of recall decisions between mammography readers in the English NHS breast screening...

To evaluate interobserver variability between mammogram readers' recall decisions in the English NHS breast screening programme, comparing different variability measures.

Data from 401,682 women in 22 NHS centres who underwent mammographic screening interpreted independently by two mammogram readers were included. Percentage agreement, prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted-kappa (PABAK), Gwet's agreement coefficient (Gwet's AC) and Cohen's kappa were reported with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses were performed separately for women at first and subsequent screening appointments, by cancer diagnosis, reader recall rates and age group.

Of 86,287 women at first screening, 6,491 (7.5%) were recalled, compared to 9,488 (3.0%) of 315,395 at subsequent screenings. Percentage agreement, Gwet's AC, and PABAK were lower for first screening than subsequent (93.6%, 95%CI: 93.4-93.7 vs 97.2%, 95%CI: 97.2-97.3), (92.3, 95%CI:92.1 to 92.5 vs 97.0, 95% CI: 97.0 to 97.1) and (87.2, 95%CI: 86.9-87.4 vs 94.4, 95%CI: 94.3-94.5), whereas Cohen's kappa, which is biased downwards when prevalence of recall is lower, did not change (61.6, 95%CI: 60.7-62.5 vs 61.8, 95%CI: 61.0-62.5). Percentage agreement, Gwet's AC, and PABAK were lower for women with cancer detected than without, but Cohen's kappa showed the opposite pattern, driven by prevalence bias. Percentage agreement, Gwet's AC, and PABAK were lower when one/both readers had high recall rates, but Cohen's kappa showed no important pattern.

Percentage agreement, Gwet's AC, and PABAK showed lower agreement for interpreting the more challenging first screen, without assistance of previous mammograms, when women had cancer and when one/both readers had a high recall rate. Cohen's kappa was heavily distorted by outcome prevalence. Despite widespread use, Cohen's kappa is inappropriate for low prevalence settings such as screening, or making comparisons when prevalence varies.