Two steps forward, one step back: cohort shifts in cognitive function trajectories in aging European populations

The present study answers four questions: Are there intercohort shifts in age trajectories of cognitive function trajectories among older adults in Europe? What may explain cohort trends? Do cohort patterns vary by region? Do these processes vary by gender?

The analysis uses the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and longitudinal mixed-effects models, in which longitudinal observations are nested within individuals, to estimate age-cohort trajectories of cognitive function across cohorts born in 1924-1970.

We find large cohort differences in cognitive function trajectories. More recent cohorts score substantially higher than their older peers at equivalent ages. Cohort shifts in education, occupation, and marital status explain approximately 24% and 32% of cohort variation among men and women, respectively. Conversely, more recent cohorts experience worse physical health and health behaviors, which work as a countervailing force, limiting gains relative to older cohorts. There are notable differences in intercohort trends by gender and region.

The findings suggest both reasons for optimism and for concern regarding the cognitive function of older adults in Europe. The dramatic expansion of education and labor market shifts toward cognitively demanding occupations have resulted in substantial gains in later-life cognitive function, leading more recent cohorts to perform better overall and retain greater function into older ages than their earlier born peers. Concomitantly, rising rates of obesity, diabetes, and other comorbid conditions appear to be dampening these gains.