Biodiversity-driven spatial conservation planning to delineate temporally stable regions

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Conservation Biology
• Biogeography
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

• Biodiversity loss is accelerating due to climate change and human activities, necessitating robust conservation strategies.
• Existing protected areas (PAs) often inadequately cover areas crucial for long-term species survival.
• The genus Salamandrina, an ancient salamander lineage, serves as a model for understanding conservation needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a conservation planning framework using temporal stacking of species distribution models and landscape connectivity.
• To identify and prioritize ecologically stable regions for species over the next 50 years.
• To propose strategies for expanding protected areas to meet the global 30x30 conservation target.

Main Methods:

• Integrated modeling and GIS workflow to analyze species distribution and landscape connectivity.
• Temporal stacking approach to identify 'steady core regions' with long-term ecological suitability.
• Analysis of existing protected areas (PAs) and proposal of new protected areas (half-century stable proposed protected areas - HCSPPAs) using buffer zones.

Main Results:

• Steady core regions for Salamandrina showed varying configurations based on distance-informed and uninformed models.
• Existing PAs (national and Natura 2000 sites) offered limited protection for these stable areas, with low steadiness values.
• Proposed HCSPPAs, identified through a 1-km buffer expansion, are concentrated in northern/central Italy and more dispersed in southern Italy.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework provides a flexible, spatially explicit method for prioritizing conservation efforts.
• The findings highlight the need to expand existing protected areas and establish new ones to secure temporally stable habitats.
• The approach supports international biodiversity targets, including the EU's 2030 Biodiversity Strategy and the 30x30 goal, by enhancing long-term species protection.