Afterschool Child Firearm Assaults: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Child Safety

Background:

• Firearms are a leading cause of death for children in the U.S.
• Prevention efforts often focus on school shootings, neglecting afterschool risks.
• Child firearm assault risk may increase in unsupervised community spaces after school.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate child firearm injury risk during the afterschool transition in New York City.
• To determine if firearm injuries increase more after school on school days compared to non-school days.
• To assess abrupt increases in firearm injuries at the afterschool transition time.

Main Methods:

• Utilized firearm assault data from the NYPD and school calendars (2006-2023, excluding COVID-19 years).
• Employed difference-in-differences analysis to compare injury risk on school vs. non-school days after 2 PM.
• Applied regression discontinuity design to detect abrupt injury increases at the afterschool transition threshold (2 PM).

Main Results:

• A 45% increase in child firearm injury risk was observed after 2 PM on school days compared to non-school days (though not statistically significant).
• A significant increase of 2.5 additional child firearm injuries (approx. 280% rise) was found at the 2 PM transition threshold.
• Sensitivity analysis using school dismissal times showed positive but insignificant results.

Conclusions:

• Children's risk of firearm assault significantly rises during the transition from school to afterschool hours.
• Further research into interventions promoting student safety during this critical afterschool period is warranted.