Risk factors for traffic violations and serious crash casualties in rural areas: a comparison of urban-rural differences in China

Rural areas are typically characterized by poor traffic conditions, less road supervision, and more illegal driving behaviors. These factors lead to significantly higher mortality and increased rates of road traffic crashes in rural areas than in urban areas. Therefore, an in-depth study of traffic risk factors in the rural areas of developing countries with large rural populations and extensive rural road coverage is particularly urgent and important.

Based on the report data of 38,458 traffic crash occurring in rural areas of Guangdong Province between 2006 and 2014 in the Road Traffic Crash Database of the Ministry of Public Security of China, the logit model was used to evaluate the impact of four factors-drivers, vehicles, roads, and environment-on at-fault crash behavior and serious casualties in rural areas. Furthermore, the risk factors for rural and urban areas were comparatively analyzed.

In rural areas, male drivers, drivers without valid licenses, drivers of unsafe vehicles and drivers of trucks are more likely to cause at-fault crashes and cause serious casualties, as are drivers impacted by certain conditions, including sand and gravel roads, mountainous terrain, and nighttime without street lighting. In urban areas, crashes involving sand and gravel roads and single-vehicle crashes have lower casualties, but migrant workers and self-employed individuals are more likely to die or be seriously injured in urban road crashes.

To reduce the impact of road traffic risk factors on at-fault crash behaviors and serious casualties in the rural areas of developing countries, targeted measures should be implemented for drivers, vehicles, and roads. These measures may include focusing on illegal drivers, trucks, and unsafe vehicles for enhanced supervision, as well as prioritizing the construction and improvement in transportation infrastructure such as roads, lighting, and safety mechanisms in rural areas.