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Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future.

Matthew Barnfield1, Rob Johns2

  • 1School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.

Political Behavior
|February 16, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Political expectations are driven by optimism and hope. Optimism influences views on societal outcomes, while hope shapes partisan election beliefs, particularly among highly hopeful individuals.

Keywords:
Electoral expectationsHopeOptimismProspective evaluationsWishful thinking

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Area of Science:

  • Political Psychology
  • Social Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Political behavior is significantly influenced by future expectations.
  • Understanding the psychological drivers of these expectations is crucial for political science.
  • Distinguishing between optimism and hope offers insight into varied future outlooks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the distinct psychological dispositions of optimism and hope in shaping political expectations.
  • To examine their influence on both societal valence expectations and electoral expectations.
  • To explore how external information moderates these effects.

Main Methods:

  • A representative-sample survey experiment was conducted in the United Kingdom.
  • Pre-registered hypotheses were assessed regarding optimism and hope.
  • Experimental manipulation involved presenting positive information from polls and expert commentary.

Main Results:

  • Optimism was found to positively influence valence expectations regarding societal outcomes.
  • Hope was identified as a key driver of partisan bias in electoral expectations.
  • Individuals higher in hope exhibited stronger partisan electoral expectations, which were dampened by positive poll and expert information.

Conclusions:

  • Optimism shapes general societal outlooks, whereas hope specifically influences partisan electoral beliefs.
  • Partisan bias in electoral expectations may stem from a sense of agency in politics, but not societal prospects.
  • External information can mitigate the influence of hope on electoral expectations.