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Comparison of Predictive Performance of Three Lymph Node Staging Systems in Colorectal Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma Based on Machine Learning Model
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An explainable machine learning model for predicting bladder tumor aecurrence risk.

Shenghua Wu1, Ying Wang1, Jingbing He1

  • 1Zhejiang Dinghai Hospital (Zhoushan Branch of Shanghai Ruijin Hospital), Zhoushan, Zhejiang, China.

Frontiers in Oncology
|February 16, 2026
PubMed
Summary

This study developed an explainable XGBoost model to predict bladder tumor recurrence, achieving 99.4% accuracy. The model uses seven key features to aid clinicians in risk stratification and personalized patient surveillance.

Keywords:
LASSO regressionXGBoostbladder neoplasmsinterpretabilitymachine learningneoplasm recurrencerisk assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Urology
  • Oncology
  • Machine Learning in Medicine

Background:

  • Bladder cancer recurrence post-surgery is common.
  • Accurate prediction of recurrence remains a clinical challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Develop and validate an explainable machine learning model.
  • Predict bladder tumor recurrence after surgical treatment.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective cohort study of 504 bladder tumor patients.
  • Utilized LASSO regression for feature selection and evaluated 11 machine learning algorithms.
  • Assessed model performance using AUC, recall, accuracy, F1-score, precision, and NPV.

Main Results:

  • XGBoost model with seven features achieved an AUC of 0.994.
  • Key predictors included BMI, tumor diameter, morphology, smoking status, invasion signs, tumor number, and location.
  • SHAP analysis highlighted BMI and tumor diameter as primary predictive factors.

Conclusions:

  • The seven-feature XGBoost model accurately predicts bladder tumor recurrence.
  • Explainable AI approach aids in clinical risk stratification.
  • Facilitates individualized surveillance planning for bladder cancer patients.