Projected Shortages in the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Workforce in the United States

Area of Science:

• Surgical Workforce Analysis
• Health Economics
• Medical Professional Planning

Background:

• Previous research indicates emerging deficiencies within the surgical workforce.
• This study specifically examines the adequacy of the plastic and reconstructive surgery workforce in the United States.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the projected supply and demand for plastic and reconstructive surgeons in the US.
• To assess the future workforce adequacy in this surgical specialty.
• To identify geographic disparities in workforce adequacy.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional analysis utilizing the Health Workforce Simulation Model.
• Modeling of plastic and reconstructive surgery physician demand under status quo and improved access scenarios.
• Calculation of workforce adequacy as the ratio of supply to demand, with trend analysis from 2024 to 2037.

Main Results:

• A projected decrease in plastic and reconstructive surgeons from 10,310 to 8,540 (17.2%) by 2037.
• Increasing demand for plastic and reconstructive surgeons under both status quo and improved access scenarios.
• Declining workforce adequacy, falling to 73.6% (status quo) and 52.5% (improved access) by 2037, with lower adequacy in non-metropolitan areas.

Conclusions:

• Significant projected shortages of plastic and reconstructive surgeons are anticipated.
• Shortages are expected to be most severe in specific states and non-metropolitan regions.
• Further research and interventions are necessary to enhance the plastic and reconstructive surgery workforce adequacy.