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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Research

Background:

  • Wildfires are natural but intensifying due to climate change, threatening essential ecosystem services.
  • Arid and semi-arid ecosystems face significant risks from increased wildfire frequency and intensity.
  • Ecosystem services are crucial for human well-being and are vulnerable to climate-driven disturbances.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel framework for reducing risk and protecting ecosystem services from wildfire and climate change impacts.
  • To map ten key ecosystem services and assess their vulnerability to environmental threats.
  • To identify drivers of ecosystem service resilience and inform adaptive management strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized field data, the InVEST model, and GIS-based spatial analysis for ecosystem service mapping.
  • Quantified wildfire and climate change risk using plant functional traits and environmental indicators.
  • Employed causal-path and correlation analyses to identify resilience drivers and local environmental influences.

Main Results:

  • Significant differences in climate change risk, flammability, and ecosystem service vulnerability were observed across land covers (p < 0.05).
  • Water production and beekeeping services are most vulnerable to climate change; carbon sequestration, food, and livestock are most impacted by fire.
  • Local environmental conditions were found to enhance ecosystem service stability under disturbance.

Conclusions:

  • A practical, transferable framework was developed for forecasting ecosystem service vulnerabilities.
  • Findings inform preventive and adaptive strategies to support human well-being and long-term ecosystem sustainability.
  • Understanding drivers of resilience is key to managing ecosystems under increasing climate change pressures.