Self-serving biases shape the relationship between future thinking and remembering of elections

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Social Psychology
• Political Psychology

Background:

• A strong relationship exists between memory and future thinking.
• It remains unclear if this relationship persists when focused on a single significant public event.
• Self-serving biases may influence how individuals remember and anticipate future events.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the influence of self-serving biases on the congruence between remembering and future thinking.
• To explore how these biases manifest in relation to significant public events, specifically elections.
• To uncover longitudinal changes in memory and future thinking influenced by personal outcomes.

Main Methods:

• A unique longitudinal approach using three questionnaire studies.
• Participants were surveyed before and after the 2024 elections in Germany, the UK, and the USA.
• Analysis focused on differences and similarities between remembering and imagining future events, considering self-serving biases.

Main Results:

• Evidence of self-serving biases in the congruence between future thinking and remembering was found.
• Election winners recalled the election as more important and vivid than previously imagined.
• Participants misremembered past predictions and adjusted optimism levels to align with election outcomes, particularly in the US study.

Conclusions:

• Phenomenological differences between remembering and future thinking are contingent on self-serving biases.
• Individuals misremember past future thoughts to align with current needs and attitudes.
• These biased memory and future thinking mechanisms can contribute to entrenched political polarization.