Levels and determinants of child wasting relapse: a prospective cohort study from Somalia
Kemish Kenneth Alier1, Shelley Walton1, Samantha Grounds1
1Johns Hopkins University, Department of International Health, Baltimore, USA.
Insights
Severe acute malnutrition relapse rates in Somalia are high, particularly in rural areas and among younger children. Cash assistance programs show promise in reducing relapse among children recovering from severe acute malnutrition.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Public Health
- Nutrition Science
Background:
- Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) relapse is a significant concern in Somalia, yet evidence on its rates and determinants is limited.
- Understanding these factors is crucial for effective intervention strategies in the region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the rates of SAM relapse in children discharged from outpatient therapeutic programs (OTP) in Somalia.
- To identify risk factors associated with SAM relapse in this vulnerable population.
Main Methods:
- A prospective cohort study involving 160 children aged 7-53 months discharged from OTP was conducted.
- Children were followed for six months, with data collected on anthropometrics, morbidity, and household factors.
- Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine relapse rates and associated factors.
Main Results:
- Cumulative SAM relapse incidence reached 26.0% by six months post-discharge based on weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) and 13.2% based on mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC).
- Higher relapse rates were observed in rural areas and among children with lower WHZ at admission.
- Factors associated with increased relapse risk included severe malnutrition at admission and longer OTP stays; cash assistance demonstrated a protective effect.
Conclusions:
- SAM relapse rates in Somalia are substantial and influenced by anthropometric indicators, geographic location, and demographic characteristics.
- Cash assistance programs present a viable complementary intervention to reduce SAM relapse.
- Findings can guide targeted interventions and policy development to improve long-term outcomes for children recovering from SAM.
Background:
Understanding the rates and determinants of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) relapse is crucial for stakeholders in Somalia, where evidence is limited. This study aimed to assess SAM relapse rates and associated risk factors among children discharged from outpatient therapeutic programmes (OTP) in the Bay and Hiran regions of Somalia.
Methods:
We conducted a prospective cohort study of 160 children aged 7-53 months discharged as recovered from OTP SAM treatment between August-September 2023. Children were followed monthly for six time points post-discharge. Anthropometric measurements, morbidity data, and household information were collected. Survival analysis was used to calculate cumulative incidence of SAM relapse, defined by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ)<-3 standard deviation (SD) or mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)<11.5 cm or oedema. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with relapse.
Results:
Cumulative incidence of SAM relapse at Time 1 (T1) = 5.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5, 10.6%), T2 = 14.3% (95% CI = 9.4, 21.5%) and T6 = 26.0% (95% CI = 19.3, 34.5%) by WHZ and 13.2% (95% CI = 8.8, 19.5%) by MUAC. The relapse rate for combined SAM and moderate acute malnutrition by WHZ at T1 = 26.9% (95% CI = 19.5, 36.3%), T2 = 36.2% (95% CI = 28.0, 46.1%) and T6 = 50.1% (95% CI = 41.0, 60.0%). Weight-for-height z-score (WHZ)-based relapse was higher in rural areas (31.4% vs. 22.7% urban, P = 0.285) and among children with WHZ<-3 SD at admission (37.4% vs. 21.2%, P = 0.029). Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)-based relapse was higher in urban areas (20.8% vs. 4.1% rural, P = 0.002), among younger children (19.7% vs. 5.5% > 2 years, P = 0.009), and internally displaced persons (21.8% vs. 5.8% non-internally displaced persons, P = 0.003). Factors significantly associated with increased relapse risk included WHZ<-3 SD at admission (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.22; 95% CI = 1.04, 4.72) and longer OTP stay (adjusted HR = 1.02 per day; 95% CI = 1.00, 1.04). Participation in a cash assistance programme was protective (adjusted HR = 0.44; 95% CI = 0.22, 0.90).
Conclusions:
Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) relapse rates in Somalia are considerable, with varying patterns by anthropometric indicator, region, and demographic factors. Cash assistance programme offers a promising complementary intervention. These findings can inform targeted interventions and policy changes to reduce relapse and improve long-term outcomes for children recovering from SAM in Somalia and similar contexts.
Registration:
The cluster-RCT associated with this cohort study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT06642012.
Related Concept Videos
Regression Toward the Mean
Longitudinal Studies
Bias in Epidemiological Studies
Bulimia Nervosa
Obesity
Assumptions of Survival Analysis


