Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Mexico: A Time Series Analysis (2014-2024)

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted public health in Mexico.

This study evaluated its impact on the frequency of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) from 2020 to 2024.

The analyzed information was extracted from the weekly epidemiological bulletins, which compile the suspected, probable, and confirmed cases reported to the Ministry of Health. The epidemiological behavior of VPDs was analyzed with endemic channels based on 2014-2019 data. An endemic channel is a graphical tool that is used to plot a central tendency and its limits; with this tool we can detect the presence of an epidemic and quantify it. Between 2020 and 2024, VPDs presented variable patterns due to the pandemic.

Rotavirus cases exhibited an 81% negative deviation in 2020 and a final 47% negative deviation in comparison with the expected values from 2014-2019. Chickenpox declined by 91% in 2020, with a partial recovery in reports afterward. Hepatitis A and B declined initially, but hepatitis B surpassed pre-pandemic levels later. Mumps declined by 45% in 2020, with a partial recovery, remaining 35% below expected reports. Meningeal and pulmonary tuberculosis increased by 125% and 33%, respectively. Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) infection and mild cervical dysplasia showed negative deviations, with partial increases later. However, severe dysplasia and in situ cervical cancer reports exceeded expected levels.

Overall, several VPDs showed negative deviations, which could increase the size of the susceptible population. In contrast, increases in tuberculosis and HPV infection present a major challenge for health systems, given their chronic and high treatment costs.